NEM Overview

SA is the standout pressure point at 227.32 $/MWh — more than 90 $/MWh above the next most expensive region — driven by heavy reliance on gas, with CCGT contributing 356.5 MW and OCGT a further 194.12 MW against total demand of just 1,361.71 MW. Wind is covering 214.01 MW (35.67% renewable penetration) but solar is offline, consistent with the pre-dawn 4:25 AEST snapshot. The V-S-MNSP1 interconnector is binding at its export limit of 170.93 MW into SA from Victoria, confirming the region is import-constrained and gas is setting the price. No market notices are active.

NSW leads demand at 8,311.85 MW with spot at 135.33 $/MWh, almost entirely backed by black coal (6,276.91 MW). Renewable penetration in NSW is thin at 9.89%, with solar yet to ramp and wind contributing only 33.3 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7914 tCO2/MWh — the second-worst in the NEM behind Victoria's 0.9264 tCO2/MWh, where 2,212 MW of brown coal dominates and the grid scores its highest carbon load. QLD is similarly coal-heavy at 0.8421 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 2.97%, as 2,691.7 MW of black coal carries the bulk of 6,558.2 MW demand at 124.30 $/MWh.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 16.1% — well below where it will be once solar ramps through the morning. Tasmania is the only region at zero carbon intensity (100% hydro, 501.52 MW), priced at 106.48 $/MWh, though Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is carrying zero flow, leaving that clean generation landlocked. Grid stress is elevated at 72.7/100 and price stability is weak at 30.2/100, consistent with the SA price spike and tight interconnector conditions. Traders should watch the V-S-MNSP1 binding constraint and SA gas dispatch costs as the morning progresses.