Load Advisor

VIC1 is the standout opportunity today: predispatch prices are deeply negative from 18:00–19:30 AEST (08:00–09:30 UTC), hitting as low as -$19.60/MWh in the 20:00 AEST interval, with savings flagged at over $113/MWh versus the reference price. SA1 mirrors this signal with prices collapsing to -$17.17/MWh around 20:00 AEST and sustained negative-to-near-zero pricing across the 18:30–20:00 AEST window. Both regions are driven by midday solar oversupply — a predictable Monday pattern with low commercial load and high rooftop PV output. Flexible loads in VIC1 and SA1 should be front-loaded into the 18:00–20:00 AEST block as the primary target.

NSW1 and QLD1 offer secondary windows. NSW1 predispatch shows prices softening to $59–62/MWh in the 11:00–12:30 AEST range, down from $73/MWh at the 10:30 AEST open, with savings of $44–47/MWh rated good. QLD1 is flatter — prices hold in the $54–58/MWh band from 11:30 AEST onwards, with the best savings (~$62/MWh) in the 19:00–19:30 AEST window at $52.75/MWh. TAS1 has no compelling cheap window in the forward predispatch — prices sit $61–71/MWh through the afternoon before a brief spike above $90/MWh at 19:30–20:30 AEST, making it a region to avoid scheduling additional load from 19:30 AEST onward.

Peak risk periods to clear: NSW1 and QLD1 are both sitting at $45/MWh real-time demand now (7,765 MW and 7,010 MW respectively), with the forecast profile suggesting prices will firm into the evening peak — avoid scheduling flexible load in these regions after 16:00 AEST. TAS1's spike to $93/MWh at 19:30 AEST warrants particular attention for any interconnector-exposed positions.

Recommendation: Schedule all discretionary flexible load in VIC1 and SA1 to run 18:00–20:00 AEST today. NSW1 operators should target the 11:00–12:30 AEST window at $59–62/MWh if VIC1/SA1 is not accessible. QLD1 flexible load is best shifted to the 13:00–15:00 AEST block at sub-$56/MWh. Defer any shiftable NSW1 and QLD1 load that would otherwise fall in the 16:00–21:00 AEST evening ramp.