commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria is sitting at 5,642 MW with a spot price of $101.28/MWh at 16:35 AEST, marking the continuation of a sustained morning ramp that began around 15:50 AEST when demand crossed 5,000 MW and prices broke above $90/MWh. The demand-price relationship over the past 18 hours has been stark: yesterday's solar-driven midday trough pushed demand to a low of approximately 2,770 MW with prices firmly negative (reaching -$49.52/MWh at 22:35 AEST), while each demand increment above 5,500 MW this morning has produced prices in the $100–$131/MWh range, with the 06:10 AEST interval hitting $130.87/MWh at 5,480 MW — the session high so far.

The overnight-to-morning trajectory tells the full story. Demand bottomed around 11:20 AEST yesterday (~2,770 MW, -$13/MWh) and climbed steadily through the afternoon and evening peak, reaching 5,975 MW at 03:55 AEST with prices around $90/MWh. That evening peak resolved without a significant price spike, held in check by generation adequacy in the $74–$93/MWh corridor. The current morning peak is proving more price-sensitive: the 840 MW demand increment between 15:40 and 16:35 AEST has pushed prices from the low $90s to above $100/MWh, indicating the grid is drawing on higher-cost generation — consistent with GAS_OCGT contributing 99.71 MW at $101/MWh pricing and brown coal baseload running at 2,194 MW.

Forecast pricing signals point to easing through the business day, with AEMO forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period in the $91/MWh range before settling to the $70–$74/MWh corridor as solar penetration lifts and demand softens from the morning peak. The pattern from yesterday confirms the mechanism: once solar ramps above ~500 MW net, prices collapse rapidly toward zero or negative territory, with demand falling to the 3,000–4,000 MW band through the 19:00–23:00 AEST window. Carbon intensity is already elevated at 0.9511 tCO2/MWh with renewables at only 20.6% — wind contributing just 27.83 MW — meaning today's morning peak is being served almost entirely by brown coal and gas OCGT, and intensity will remain high until solar contribution materialises.

Demand managers and flexible load operators should note the current $101/MWh price level sits near the top of the day's likely range absent an unexpected demand surge or generation trip. The sharp demand-price sensitivity above 5,500 MW observed this morning — $29/MWh of price movement over a 140 MW demand increment between 16:20 and 16:25 AEST — confirms that curtailment or load shifting of even modest scale during the 16:00–17:30 AEST window carries meaningful cost avoidance value. The afternoon solar trough window around 08:00–11:00 AEST (NEM overnight, equivalent to the next business-day off-peak) remains the lowest-cost consumption window based on yesterday's analogue, with prices likely to return to negative territory.