commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania is entering the morning peak at 1,165 MW with a spot price of $115.04/MWh at 16:35 AEST — demand has climbed 140 MW in the two hours since 14:30 AEST, tracking the consistent evening ramp-up pattern visible across the history. This demand lift is directly responsible for the price step-change: when demand sat in the 870–940 MW trough overnight (02:00–06:00 AEST yesterday), prices compressed to $104.77–$106.04/MWh. The morning build through the 1,000–1,100 MW band pushed prices back to the $106–$115/MWh range, and the brief spike to $160.86/MWh at 04:00 AEST yesterday — when demand crossed 1,125 MW — signals the supply stack thins materially above 1,120 MW.
All generation is hydro (560.68 MW dispatched at last read), with wind contributing 0 MW and gas OCGT offline. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable supply throughout the observed period. The gap between local hydro dispatch (~560 MW) and total demand (1,165 MW) confirms significant Basslink import dependency — meaning Tasmanian prices are exposed to Victorian supply conditions, and any constraint on the interconnector at peak demand will amplify price volatility.
Today's price trajectory is firmly upward through the morning. Demand is still rising — the 06:10–06:35 AEST interval added nearly 30 MW in 25 minutes — and the pattern from yesterday shows the peak sits in the 1,120–1,135 MW range between 03:45–04:35 AEST (18:45–19:35 AEST local evening), where prices locked to $115.02/MWh for an extended run. Forecasts currently peg the next dispatch intervals at $115.02/MWh, consistent with demand holding above 1,100 MW. The key threshold to watch is 1,140 MW: yesterday's data shows that level triggers stepped price escalation toward and above $128/MWh. No market notices are active.
Grid stress is scored at 79.2/100 — the highest sub-score in the current dataset — which corroborates the supply tightness implied by the demand-generation gap. Flexible load operators should treat the 15:00–18:00 AEST window (01:00–04:00 UTC) as the highest-risk period for elevated pricing today.