commodity demand sa — SA1

SA1 spot is at $106.24/MWh with demand at 1,416.71 MW as of 17:35 AEST — demand has climbed roughly 400 MW from its overnight floor and is now sitting near the session high. Yesterday's price history shows the demand-price relationship is tightly coupled at current load levels: when demand was tracking 1,300–1,420 MW through the late evening, prices repeatedly touched $138–$179.67/MWh, with a spike to $497.50/MWh at 06:15 AEST (10 March) on demand of 1,323 MW — demonstrating that at this load range, supply margins are thin and small demand variations produce large price swings.

The overnight demand trough on 9 March was extreme, with net demand reaching as low as -98 MW around 12:35–13:00 AEST as rooftop solar and wind overwhelmed consumption, driving prices to -$306.50/MWh. Demand then recovered steadily through the afternoon — crossing zero around 14:35 AEST and rising sharply through the evening ramp, gaining over 1,400 MW in roughly five hours. That ramp rate is the critical price driver: the transition from solar-suppressed midday lows to evening peak load is where SA's marginal cost stack steepens fastest, and the 88–179 $/MWh prints between 18:30–19:15 AEST confirm gas peakers were being dispatched on the shoulder.

Generation at 06:30 UTC (17:00 AEST) shows GAS_CCGT at 359 MW and GAS_OCGT at 191 MW — combined thermal output of 550 MW against 276 MW wind and zero solar. With renewables at just 33.91% and carbon intensity at 0.3506 tCO2/MWh, the grid is firmly gas-dependent heading into the evening peak. If demand tracks toward the 1,400–1,420 MW range seen last night, the price outlook is $100–$180/MWh through 19:00–21:00 AEST, with upside spike risk if wind softens or interconnector flows tighten. Grid stress is scored at 79.2/100, corroborating the limited headroom above current dispatch levels.